Monday, March 14, 2005

Commuting and Sprawl

I read this article
TRANSPORTATION / Alternative to driving isn't a reliable one / Altamont 'express' trains have been plagued by delays
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/03/14/BAG2CBOTOL1.DTL
and it got me thinking about housing prices, sprawl and the real cost of capital improvements that encourage sprawl. The article specifical mentioned one couple who moved to San Joaquin county because of the availability of the ACE train. Now that the train is unreliable, they have to drive, wasting fossil fuels, clogging the roads, and lowering everyone's quality of life. ACE has some responsibility for that!

Ok, so, the monthly pass for the ACE train is $259, at the current interest rate of about 5.5%, that translates to about $45,000 in home value. Median house prices in the area are:
Tracy: $214,200 (2000)
Fremont: $459,000 (2003)
San Jose: $456,000 (2003)
So, let's adjust for the difference in dates and say Tracy's median value is $250,000 and add the cost of the ACE train pass, bringing it up to $300,000. Well, it is still looking cheaper to live in Tracy. (I feel obligated to say something about the overall auto-dependance of one's lifestyle, and what that might cost, but I can guess that these "cities" all have a high-level of auto-dependance in their land use patterns.)

But there's one more thing I would like to discuss: time. Say your commute takes an extra 2 hours each day. (It takes 2-1.5 hour each way, depending on origin and destination) Let's pay ourselves $10/hour for that time. $10/hour *2 trips per day *5 days per week *4 weeks of work per month = $400 per month. This translates to about another $70,000 in home value, bringing our total to $370,000. Yes, this is still cheaper than $456,000, but not by much. Plus, wouldn't you prefer to spend that extra 40 hours per month with your dog or your kid or your partner or your couch or your flower box or working or just about anywhere other than in traffic or on an impersonal train? So why are we spending on tax base to encourage people to spend more time doing things they would rather not do? You tell me.

Sources:
Home values
http://homes.wsj.com/cityprofiles/fremont_ca.html
http://www.city-data.com/city/Tracy-California.html

Mortgage calculations
http://www.mortgage-calc.com/cgi-bin/flap.pl?pmn=40000&pmx=100000&imn=5&imx=6&yrs=30&out=HTML+3.0+Tables

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